I probably shouldn’t say this, but I guess it’s “true confession” time. I honestly don’t know how this all plays out in the end. In one moment, I take the hopeful stance that once we are “released”, a strong recovery will unfold and things won’t be as bad as the “gloomers and doomers” say it will.
And then in another moment I envision exactly the scenario that they are plying. And I picture the worst.
The reality – I think – is that:
*Compelling, cogent arguments can be made in both directions
*Absolutely nobody knows for sure
Which means that:
*Essentially everything that everyone writes or says about “the post-corona” period is nothing more than theory and conjecture.
*From an investor’s standpoint it means you really do need to be “prepared for anything” and that a little bit of flexibility in your portfolio is important.
*From a trader’s standpoint you need to recognize that there is presently great opportunity – associated with elevated risk. It’s a great time to be a trader – but it is important to keep individual bets small. Big winners will take care of themselves, but on the losing side of the equation things can happen very quickly nowadays. So take extra care to limit risk.
To give you a flavor of the endless conundrum I keep running up against, feel free to peruse these two compelling, cogent – and diametrically opposed articles:
Bear Market Will Now Enter A New And More Explosive Stage
The U.S. stock market may enjoy the biggest rally ever when the pandemic is over
Jay Kaeppel
Disclaimer: The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and are based on research conducted and presented solely by the author. The information presented represents the views of the author only and does not constitute a complete description of any investment service. In addition, nothing presented herein should be construed as investment advice, as an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources. While the data is believed to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information. International investments are subject to additional risks such as currency fluctuations, political instability and the potential for illiquid markets. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is risk of loss in all trading. Back tested performance does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of such performance. Also, back tested performance results have certain inherent limitations and differs from actual performance because it is achieved with the benefit of hindsight.
The first author tries to sell his “successful portfoilio strategy” for 400$ per year.
Fear of a massive bear market will boost his sales 🙂
gs, Thanks for the comment. For the record, I am not endorsing or dismissing either the authors or what they wrote. My intention is merely to point out that, a) one can think whatever they want these days, b) they can make (or find) a compelling argument to back up their beliefs, and c) the reality is that no one really knows for sure how this all plays out. Take Care, Jay