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Taking What The AAPL Gives You

August 2, 2017Uncategorizedadmin

This is a lesson in subjective analysis. Not a lesson so much maybe as an example. Because subjective analysis is just that – making decisions on the fly based on “gut”, “instinct”, and/or accumulated experience.

The AAPL Story

In this article I wrote about a hypothetical trade using options on AAPL anticipating a bounce back up towards a previous high.

In this article I raised the idea of potentially “doing something” to lock in a profit.

Now in this article I am going to say that on a subjective basis I would take a profit and close the trade here.

The current status of the example trade appears in Figure 1.Figure 1 – AAPL Calendar Spread as of 8/2/17 (Courtesy www.OptionsAnalysis.com)

Note the following:

*AAPL has bounced back up to its previous high – which was the impetus of the trade in the first place.

*The trade now has an open profit of 149%

*I have no idea where AAPL is headed next

*Also, while AAPL is sharply higher on the day, many of the other FAANG stocks are heading in the opposite direction at the same time.

Figure 2 – AMZN stock (Courtesy: Barchart.com)

Figure 3 – NVDA stock (Courtesy: Barchart.com)

Figure 4 – PCLN stock (Courtesy: Barchart.com)

With our trade objective (i.e., AAPL retouching the old high) reached, with a sizeable % profit and with the other stocks in the “club” acting in an exactly opposite manner, I for one would probably “ring the cash register” at this point.

Jay Kaeppel

Disclaimer: The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources. While I believe the data to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information. The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute and should not be construed as investment advice, an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.

On Picking a Bottom in VXX

August 2, 2017Uncategorizedadmin

The VIX Index is an index calculated by the Chicao Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and designed to measure volatility in the stock market and is presently near its all-time low. Some argue that it has “nowhere to go but up.” Like the “boy who cried wolf” some analysts have been making this argument for quite some time – to no avail, at least so far.

Ticker VXX is an Exchange-Trade Fund that is designed to track the VIX Index. Therefore, the idea of “picking a bottom in VXX” means betting on greater volatility in the stock market.

OK, before we go any further, it is important to look at Figure 1 and recognize the huge potential folly represented by the title of this article.Figure 1 – Ticker VXX consistently trends lower with occasional spikes (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Anybody who attempts to play the long side of ticker VXX is plain and simply bucking some long odds. Understand that it wasn’t supposed to be this way. Originally the ETF ticker VXX was intended to track the VIX Index. That didn’t come anywhere close to happening as you can see in Figure 2.Figure 2 – VIX Index versus Ticker VXX (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

This, ahem, slight difference in performance is because of something called “contango” (which involves the differences in price between futures contracts of various months and I am not gonna lie, is kind of a boring technical topic – which is why I am going to let you Google it if you so desire rather than go into a boring technical explanation).

The bottom line: Ticker VXX has trended sharply lower since inception – with an occasional sharp spike higher.

The questions at hand are:

a) Is one of those sharp spikes higher at hand?

b) Given the long term trend for VXX, is it even worth betting on a spike higher?

(See also Respect the Trend, But Beware)

Seasonal Trends in Volatility

The VXO Index is similar to the VIX Index. The VXO Index is calculated using options on the S&P 100 Index while VIX is calculated using options on the S&P 500 index. While they are two different indexes and will trade at different price levels, their movements are roughly 95% correlated to each other.

I bring up ticker VXO and its close correlation to VIX because: Figure 3 is courtesy of Larry McMillan of The Option Strategist and displays the “average” day to day movement of the VXO Index across an “average” year. Note the strong tendency for VXO to rise from July into October. Because VXO and VIX are so highly correlated we can expect similar action in the VIX Index – i.e., a tendency to rise from July to October.Figure 3 – Annual Seasonal Trend for VXO – i.e., volatility often spikes August into October (Courtesy: Options Strategist)

So with the VIX Index presently at an extremely low level and with a strong tendency for volatility to rise between July and October can we count on a spike in volatility in the months ahead? Not necessarily. But if we one were going to “buck the long odds” and attempt to play the long side of volatility ETFs, it might soon be time to take a look.

One Way to Play

As with most opportunities there are a lot of ways to play. The simplest approach of course would be to buy shares of ticker VXX. However, not only is overall volatility in the market low – as indicated by the low readings in the VIX Index itself – but the implied volatility for the options on VXX itself is also near the low end of its historical range as you can see in Figure 4.Figure 4 – Price chart for Ticker VXX with implied option volatility for VXX options (blue line); Implied volatility (blue line) for options on VXX is relatively low (Courtesy www.OptionsAnalysis.com)

So for the purposes of “crafting” a trade that can potentially profit if volatility rises in the months ahead we will assume that:

a) Overall volatility will rise (i.e., VXX will trade higher)

b) Implied option volatility on VXX options will also rise

So we want a position that can profit from a higher price for VXX and/or a rise in implied volatility. One strategy that fits this category is a “calendar spread.” The position displayed in Figure 5 and 6 involves:

*Buying 5 VXX Nov 12 calls at 1.31

*Selling 4 VXX Oct 14 calls at 0.72

Figure 5 – VXX Calendar Spread (Courtesy www.OptionsAnalysis.com)

Figure 6 – VXX Calendar Spread Risk Curves (Courtesy www.OptionsAnalysis.com)

Things to note:

*The initial cost and maximum risk $367 for a 5×4 position

*If VXX is unchanged by October option expiration the loss would likely be less than $200.

*If VXX continues to trend lower this trade will lose money, so this is a speculative play on an upside reversal in VXX

*If VXX does rise then time decay will work in favor of this trade. In other words, as time goes by the October options will experience relatively more time decay than the November options. See Figure 6 to see the potential positive effect of the passage of time.

*In addition, because this trade is long one additional November call option there is unlimited upside profit potential if a “crazy spike” – ala 2008 were to unfold.

Finally, if we are correct and an increase in implied volatility accompanies a rally in VXX, the profit should grow even more.

In Figure 5 note that:

*The November 12 call has a “Vega” of 2.4 and the October 14 has a “Vega” of minus 1.9.

*This means that for every one percentage point increase in volatility then November 12 call will gain an additional $240 and the October 14 will lose -$190 (due solely to changes in volatility).

If IV levels spike say 30% higher from current levels, the overall trade profit can increase substantially on a percentage basis. See Figure 7.Figure 7 – A rise in implied option volatility pushes risk curves to the right (i.e., higher) (Courtesy www.OptionsAnalysis.com)

Summary

Let’s be brutally candid about two things:

1) People have been declaring for months that volatility in the market is “too low” and that a rise is “overdue.” And all the while the VIX Index just keeps creeping lower. There is no reason this can’t continue. And even if it doesn’t continue….

2) Ticker VXX has a serious, persistent downward bias to it – which should give a trader serious pause before entering into a bullish trade on VXX.

With those two points firmly in mind:

1) Figure 3 suggests that if volatility is ever going to pick up again the next several months are as likely as time as any for it to happen.

2) The example trade in Figures 4 through 7 (which is just that – an example” and not a “recommendation”) can take advantage of a rise in volatility that plays out over a couple of months time.

Of course, a sharp rise in stock market volatility is typically a companion of declining stock prices. So as always – be careful what you wish for…..

Jay Kaeppel

When Dividends Shine

August 1, 2017Uncategorizedadmin

It really doesn’t require rocket science to do alright in the markets. Now Lord knows it’s pretty easy to get wrapped up in “crunching numbers” (“Hi, my name is Jay”), but sometimes simple strategies can do reasonably well. Every once in a great while us “quantitative types” stop doing calculations long enough to look up and look around at “slightly less complex” methods.

Good thing too.

Consider the following strategy based on the S&P Dividend Aristocrats Index. This index focuses exclusively on companies in the S&P 500 that have grown dividends for at least 25 consecutive years. The ETF ticker NOBL (ProShares S&P 500® Dividend Aristocrats ETF) tracks this index.

(See also Respect the Trend, But Beware)

Here is the “Non Rocket Science Related Dividend Strategy”:

*Hold the S&P Dividends Aristocrats Index during March, April, May, November and December.

*Hold Cash during all other months (for purposes of this test we will assume annual rate of interest of 1%)

Using monthly total return index data from the PEP Database by Callan Associates, the results appear in Figure 1.Figure 1 – Growth of $1,000 using Jay’s Non-Rocket Science Related Dividend Strategy; 12/31/1989-6/30/2017

For the record:

*Average 12 months = +10.5%

*Median 12 months = +9.1%

*Standard Deviation of 12-month returns = 7.5%

*Worst 12 months = (-3.5%)

*Maximum Drawdown = (-6.6%)

Summary

Is this a “world beater, you can’t lose in the stock market” strategy? Not at all (especially since there is no such thing). But it does offer a place to start looking for someone looking for a relatively low volatility investment strategy.

Now if you will excuse me I have to get back to dividing the 3-day RSI by its own 10-day moving average. I think I may be onto something.

Jay Kaeppel

Respect the Trend, But Beware

July 31, 2017Uncategorizedadmin

It is hard to look at Figure 1 and argue that the trend of the stock market is anything but bullish. Major averages making new all-time highs is essentially the very definition of a bull market. And indeed the market may continue to push higher indefinitely.Figure 1 – Four Major Averages all at or near all-time highs (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Trying to “pick a top” usually ends with an embarrassed prognosticator. Particularly when the major market averages are posting new highs. Still, there comes a time when it can pay to pay close attention for signs of “Trouble in Paradise”. That time may be now.

Four Bellwethers

In this article I wrote about 4 “bellwethers” that I follow for potential “early warning signals”. So far no “run for cover” signals have appeared. Two of the four have confirmed the new highs in the market averages and the other two have not. If and when 3 or 4 of them fail to confirm that may signal trouble ahead.Figure 2 – XIV and BID confirm news highs; SMH and TRAN so far have not (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

XIV and BID have confirmed new highs in the major averages (although the parabolic nature of XIV’s run is somewhat troubling to me) while SMH and the Dow Transports have not.

Post-Election/Year “7” Bermuda Triangle

I have written about this a few times but it bears repeating here. Post-Election Years and Years ending in “7” (1907, 1917, etc.) have typically witnessed “trouble” in the second half of the year. Figures 3 and 4 are posted courtesy of a Twitter post from Larry McMillan of the Option Strategist.

Figure 3 highlights the fact that the 2nd half of “Years 7” have often witnessed “trouble.”

Figure 4 show that each “7” year posted a high during the 2^nd half of the year (or in June) and then suffered a decline. This does not guarantee a repeat this year but it is a warning sign.

Figure 3 – Decade Pattern for the Dow Jones Industrials Average (Courtesy: Options Strategist)

Figure 4 – Years “7” (Courtesy: Options Strategist)

Also, during years that are both “post-election” years AND “Years ending in 7”, the August through October results have been brutal- as depicted in Figure 5 – with an average 3-month decline of -15%.

Figure 5 – August/September/October of Post-Election Years that also End in “7”

Nothing in Figures 3 through 5 “guarantee” an imminent market decline. They do however, constitute the reason the word “Beware” appears in the headline.

Valuation

Last week I witnessed a presentation where a quite knowledgeable gentleman posted a chart of the Schiller PE Ratio. He made note of the fact that the Schiller PE Ratio has only been higher twice in modern history – 1929 and 2000. The 1929 peak was followed by an 89% decline by the Dow and the 2000 peak was followed by an 83% decline by the Nasdaq. So are we doomed to experience a devastating decline? Not necessarily. At least not necessarily anytime soon. The stock market became “overvalued” in 1995 and then continued to rally sharply higher for another 4+ years. Likewise, the market as theoretically been “overvalued” since 2013 – and so far so good.

Figure 6 shows the price action of the Dow Jones Industrials Average since 1901 in blue and the movements of the Schiller PE Ratio in green.

The peaks in the Schiller PE ratio in:

1901

1929

1937

1965

1995-2000

2003-2008

Were all followed by “something bad”.

While the exact timing is unknowable, as you can see in Figure 6, history does suggest that ultimately a “happy ending” is unlikely.

Figure 6 – A History Lesson in High Shiller PE Ratio Readings: Dow Jones Industrials Average (blue line) and Schiller PE Ratio (green line); 1901-present

Summary

I absolutely, positively DO NOT possess the ability to “predict” what is going to happen in the financial markets. I have gotten pretty good however, at identifying when risk is unusually high or low.

Current Status: Risk High

Because I don’t offer investment advice on this blog – and because my track record of “market calls” is so bad, no one should interpret anything in this article as a call to “Sell Everything”, especially since I haven’t even done that myself – us “trend-followers” usually take awhile to give up the ghost. In reality, I hope that stocks continue to rally and that this article ends up making me looking stupid, er, I mean “overly cautious”.

But the real point is simply that having plans, mechanisms, etc. to reduce risk in your portfolio makes sense.

Jay Kaeppel

Stock Market Breaks Out in July – Not Everyone is Surprised

July 26, 2017Uncategorizedadmin

In this article – dated March 15, 2017 – I pointed out that in post-election years since 1901, the market has made most of its money in only two of the twelve calendar months. One of those months is July.

Figure 1 is taken from the original article and displays:

a) The cumulative percentage price gain for the Dow Jones Industrials Average only during July and December of post-election years

versus

b) The cumulative percentage gain for the Dow Jones Industrials Average during all other 10 months of post-election years.Figure 1 – Growth of $1,000 invested in Dow ONLY during July and December of post-election years (blue line) versus the “Other” 10 months of the year (red line); 1901-2016

So while the percentage gains for the month for most of the major stock market indexes aren’t huge, the fact that most of them managed to breakout to new highs did not come as a surprise to “some of us.”

But Before Popping any Corks….

Please also review the ugly details in this article which discusses the stock market performance only during:

August, September and October of Post-Election Years that also end in “7” (1917, 1937, 1957, 1977, and 1997)

The results are neatly summarized in Figures 2 and 3 below.

Figure 2 – August/September/October Dow Jones Industrials monthly price changes during Post-Election Years ending in “7”

Figure 3 – Growth of $1,000 invested in the Dow Jones Industrials Average ONLY during August, September and October of “Post-Election Years ending in “7”

Summary

So like I said, given the history of post-election years we should not be surprised that stocks followed through to new highs during July.

At the same time we should also not be too surprised if something “ugly” happens in the stock market in the months ahead.

Not a “prediction” per se, but more a reminder to “locate the exit nearest you.”

Jay Kaeppel

AAPL Update – Decisions, Decisions

July 25, 2017Uncategorizedadmin

In this article I wrote about the potential for AAPL to “bounce” higher following a short, sharp decline in June. That article included a hypothetical option trade that might allow a trader to take advantage if AAPL did in fact bounce.

Well, it bounced.

Now comes the hard part.

The Original Position

The original example trade involved:

*Buying 4 Sep 160 calls @ 1.28

*Selling 4 Aug 160 calls @ 0.69

The total cost and total risk was roughly $260. The original risk curves appear in Figure 1.Figure 1 – The Original AAPL position 6/27 (Courtesy www.OptionsAnalysis.com)

The “idea” was that if AAPL merely managed to bounce back up to its old high a decent percentage gain was possible.

The Update

As of roughly 9:40 CST on 7/25 AAPL had bounced back up from $143.74 to $153.59 and the option trade has an open profit of $256 – or roughly 100% on the initial cost and risk of entering the trade.Figure 2 – The Updated AAPL Position as of 7/25 (Courtesy www.OptionsAnalysis.com)

The Decision

From here a trader could:

a) Let it ride and hope that AAPL gets closer to the peak profit price of $160 a share – which could generate a great deal of additional profit.

b) Exit the trade and take a 100% profit – i.e., ring the cash register before the profit vanishes.

c) Adjust the trade in some way to lock in some sort of profit while still letting the position ride.

Summary

As I have limited time at the moment I will not attempt to answer the question nor make any suggestions beyond the following:

*Note the potential to use options to enter into inexpensive speculative trades with limited risk

*Note that there is no right or wrong answers among a, b and c above.

*If you want to be a trader you’d better get used to making decisions like this on a regular basis.

Jay Kaeppel

Making Money by Writing Puts (Sort of)

July 24, 2017Uncategorizedadmin

There is a strategy that involves writing out-of-the-money put options on stocks that you would be willing to buy. The problem (in my market addled mind) is that it is what I would call a “high maintenance strategy”. There is a lot of ongoing monitoring and a lot of “hands on” actions involved.

But there may be a way to have someone else do the legwork which doesn’t involve you actually having to be the one to make the trades.

Selling Naked Puts

The basic strategy works like this: if a stock is trading at $31 a share a trader might sell a put option with a strike price of $30. Let’s say the investor sells the put for $1 a contract. If the stock drops below 30 at option expiration the investor could take delivery of the stock at an effective price of $29 a share ($30 strike price minus $1 of option premium received). If the stock stays above $30 at expiration then the investor keeps the $1 of premium received and can write another put option if he or she desires.

The problems with this strategy is, a) you really have to pay attention to what’s going on with each position, and, b) you still have to be a reasonably decent stock picker. It’s great to buy a stock at $29 instead of $31 but if it subsequently drops to $25 then it’s not so great.

As I mentioned earlier, there may be a less “high maintenance” approach.

The CBOE Put/Write Index

The CBOE created an index call the Put/Write Index. For details see here. There is now an ETF that tracks this index– the ticker symbol is PUTW. What follows is a simple strategy using this index.

Jay’s Put/Write System

*Buy and hold the CBOE Put/Write Index November through July

*Buy and hold GNMA bonds August through October

The Test

For testing purposes we use:

*CBOE Put/Write Index month total return data from July 1986 through February 2016

*Ticker PUTW monthly total return data from March 2016 (when PUTW started trading) through June 2017

*Ticker VFIIX (Vanguard GNMA fund) total return data as a proxy for GNMA bonds

So the “system” (such as it is) holds PUTW November through July and VFIIX August through October.

Results

The equity curve for this test appears in Figure 1 along with the equity curve for the S&P 500 index on a buy-and-hold basis over the same time

Figure 1 – Jay’s Put/Write Systems versus SPX (July1986-June 2017)

Some relevant performance comparisons appear in Figure 2

Measure	Put/Write System	S&P 500
Ave. 12 mo % +(-)	12.0	11.3%
Median 12 mo % +(-)	12.2	13.1%
Std. Deviation %	7.6	16.6%
Ave % +(-)/Std. Dev.	1.59	0.68
Worst 12 months %	(-11.6%)	(-43.3%)
Max Drawdown %	(-16.1%)	(-50.9%)
$1,000 becomes	$30,614	$19,572

Figure 2 – System Results versus SPX

Summary

So is this a turnkey, ready-to-go, you can’t lose approach to investing? As always, there is no such thing. Still the long term results – particularly vis a vis the S&P 500 Index might make it an interesting place to start looking.

Jay Kaeppel

Energy Good News and Bad News

July 18, 2017Uncategorizedadmin

I read a piece this morning where some analyst was calling for a rally in energy stocks. It’s a guts call. And he may be right. But for some reason, whether it is producing/consuming it or simply investing in it, it seems like nothing is ever easy when it comes to energy.

Energy versus Jay’s Anti U.S. Dollar Index

I follow an index I made up using ETFs that are inversely correlated to the US dollar. Turns out it is not the worst energy stock barometer in the world.

The index is referred to as ANTIUS3 and is comprised of the following tickers:

FXE – Euro Currency Trust

FXF – Currency Shares Swiss Franc

IBND – SPDR Bloomberg Barclays International Corporate Bonds

IGOV – iShares International Treasury Bonds

UDN – PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index Bearish

Figure 1 displays my ANTIUS3 index in the bottom clip with a 5-week and 30-week moving average added and Fidelity Select Energy (FSENX) in the bottom clip. Just a cursory glance reveals that ANTIUS3 typically (though far from always) serves as a leading indicator for energy stocks. In other words, when the 5-week MA in the top clip is above the 30-week MA in the top clip FSENX (in the bottom clip) tends to rise and vice versa.Figure 1 – Jay’s Anti U.S. Dollar Index versus ticker FSENX (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)

Figure 2 displays the growth of $1,000 invested in FSENX only when:

a) The ANTIUS3 5-week MA > 30wk MA

b) The ANTIUS3 5-week MA < 30wk MA

Figure 2 – Growth of $1,000 invested in FSENX when system is “bullish” (blue) versus “bearish” (red); 3/1/2007-7/14/2017

As you can see in Figure 2 the ANITUS3 5wk/30wk “system” does not exactly qualify as “precision market timing.” Still, consider the overall results:

*When the ANTIUS3 5wkMA > 30wkMA FSENX gained +187% (i.e. system is “bullish”)

*When the ANTIUS3 5wkMA < 30wkMA FSENX lost -66% (i.e. system is “bearish”)

That’s not terribly shabby for an admittedly very crude approach.

The most recent “signal” was a “Buy” on 4/28/17 but FSENX slid another 10% into June before “sorta, kinda” bouncing since then (See right hand side of Figure 2).

So where to from here? Per usual, I have to go with my stock answer of “it beats me.” (Sorry folks, but predictions are not my strong suit). Some thoughts:

*Energy stocks may well bounce higher in the near term, however, you have to be comfortable with (and preferably experienced at) being a countertrend trader in order to take a bullish position at this moment.

*From a seasonal standpoint this is typically not the ideal time to pile into energies.

During the month of August ticker FENX has generated a cumulative gain of +47% since it started trading in 1981. However, as shown in Figure 3 – during September, October and November FSENX has lost a cumulative -42%. At the same time, Figure 3 shows that FSENX “can” rally sharply during these months. But the long-term odds are not favorable.Figure 3 – Growth of $1,000 invested in ticker FSENX ONLY during September, October and November; 6/1/1981-present

In sum:

*If you think that energy stocks are oversold and due for a bounce, you may be right and a trade on the long side might pay off (I suggest options on ticker XLE).

*If you are not so gung ho you might consider waiting to see what things look like closer to the end of November.

Jay Kaeppel

Another Viewpoint on Year ‘7’

July 14, 2017Uncategorizedadmin

I have written on several occassions about the harrowing goings on in previous “Years ending in 7” (here and here).

Overall at the moment I am:

1) Still content to ride the bullish wave

2) Keeping a close eye on the exits

Today I read another interesting take on “Year 7” by Dana Lyons as reported on The McVerry Report. If you would like to remain “well grounded” with all of the hoopla beginning to build regarding “new all-time highs” I strongly suggest you give it a read.

For the record I am not the type who is personally included to fight new all-time highs and in no way am I “calling for a top.” As high as the market wants to run – A OK by me. But I also try to keep in mind two old adages that I adapted (and adopted) as follows:

Jay’s Trading Maxim #135: You are far more likely to trip and fall if you moving forward while staring at the sky. So always be aware of the terrain around you.

Jay’s Trading Maxim #136: If you trip and fall walking down the street that is one thing. But if you trip and fall at the top of a mountain that is something different. And if you don’t even realize you are at the top of a mountain when you trip and fell then, well, the only words that apply are ”Look Out Below.”

The bottom line:

*Don’t fight the trend.

*But never allow yourself to believe that the trend can’t end.

Jay Kaeppel

Beans Beware Below

July 13, 2017Uncategorizedadmin

There are no “sure things” in the financial markets. There are however, certain “high probability” things. Like for instance, a summer sell off in soybeans (and corn for that matter, but let’s keep it simple and look at beans).

The “typical” pattern for soybeans is that during the winter and early spring months – when there are no actual soybeans planted in the ground in the Midwest and therefore uncertainty is high regarding the current year’s crop – bean prices rise. Then after the expected state of the current year’s crop becomes known in late spring and into summer, bean price fall.

That didn’t happen this year. Like I said, there are no “sure things”.

As you can see in Figure 1 November soybean futures went sideways from December into March and then declined steadily into June, before staging a massive rally in the past two weeks to end up where we would typically expect them to be by early July – i.e., at or near a high or the year.Figure 1 – November Soybeans (Courtesy ProfitSource by HUBB)

Where to from here? Historically the early July into early August period has been extremely rough for soybeans.

Specifically the seasonally unfavorable period extends from:

*The close on July Trading Day #9 (7/14/2017 this year)

*To the close on August Trading Day #6 (8/8/2017)

The History

Figure 2 displays the cumulative dollar gain/loss achieved by holding long one soybean futures contract from the close on July TDM #9 through August TDM#6 every year since 1978. As you can see it is not a pretty picture.

Figure 2 – Cumulative $ +/- holding long 1 soybean futures contract during unfavorable summer seasonal period (1978-2016)

Figure 3 shows the year-by-year gain/loss.Figure 3 – Yearly $ +/- holding long 1 soybean futures contract during unfavorable summer seasonal period (1978-2016)