Orwell famously wrote that some animals are more equal than others. As it turns out, during certain months some stock market sectors are more equal than others. Let’s take a closer look at the month of November
November Sectors
I have my own methods for analyzing sector performance. Based on these factors, the top sectors (using Fidelity Select Sector funds) for November are (or more accurately, “have been”):
FCYIX – Industrials
FBSOX – IT Services
FSRPX – Retailing
FSHOX – Construction & Housing
FSPHX – Health Care
Figure 1 displays the growth of $1,000 invested in these sector funds only during the month of November since 1986 (note that FCYIX started trading in 2003 and FBSOX in 2004).
Figure 1 – Growth of $1,000 invested in top November sectors
*This portfolio has showed a gain in November 23 times (74%) and a loss 8 times (26%). Since 1994 the record is up 19 times and down 3.
*The average UP November was +4.3%
*The average DOWN November was -3.7%
*The 3 largest gains were +11.3% (1990), +9.9% (2001) and +6.7% (2009)
*The 3 largest losses were -8.0% (1987), -7.2% (2008) and -5.0% (2007)
Figure 2 displays the annual November gain/loss in chart form.
Figure 3 displays the annual November gain/loss in numerical form.
Figure 2 – 5-Sector November +/-%
| Year | November % +/-) |
| 11/30/1986 | 0.8 |
| 11/30/1987 | (8.0) |
| 11/30/1988 | (1.8) |
| 11/30/1989 | 2.1 |
| 11/30/1990 | 11.3 |
| 11/30/1991 | (4.1) |
| 11/30/1992 | 6.3 |
| 11/30/1993 | (0.3) |
| 11/30/1994 | (1.8) |
| 11/30/1995 | 5.1 |
| 11/30/1996 | 4.6 |
| 11/30/1997 | 3.5 |
| 11/30/1998 | 6.1 |
| 11/30/1999 | 1.1 |
| 11/30/2000 | (1.3) |
| 11/30/2001 | 9.9 |
| 11/30/2002 | 5.9 |
| 11/30/2003 | 2.5 |
| 11/30/2004 | 5.5 |
| 11/30/2005 | 5.4 |
| 11/30/2006 | 2.0 |
| 11/30/2007 | (5.0) |
| 11/30/2008 | (7.2) |
| 11/30/2009 | 6.7 |
| 11/30/2010 | 2.4 |
| 11/30/2011 | 0.6 |
| 11/30/2012 | 2.9 |
| 11/30/2013 | 3.6 |
| 11/30/2014 | 3.7 |
| 11/30/2015 | 2.0 |
| 11/30/2016 | 4.1 |
Figure 3 – 5-Sector November +/-%
Summary
Will this 5 fund portfolio show a gain or a loss in November 2017? There is no way to predict. Still, for investors looking for an “edge”, these sectors might be an interesting place to look.
Jay Kaeppel
Disclaimer: The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources. While I believe the data to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information. The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute and should not be construed as investment advice, an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.
