In this article – dated March 15, 2017 – I pointed out that in post-election years since 1901, the market has made most of its money in only two of the twelve calendar months. One of those months is July.
Figure 1 is taken from the original article and displays:
a) The cumulative percentage price gain for the Dow Jones Industrials Average only during July and December of post-election years
versus
b) The cumulative percentage gain for the Dow Jones Industrials Average during all other 10 months of post-election years.
Figure 1 – Growth of $1,000 invested in Dow ONLY during July and December of post-election years (blue line) versus the “Other” 10 months of the year (red line); 1901-2016
(See also Live by the FAANG, Die by the FAANG)
So while the percentage gains for the month for most of the major stock market indexes aren’t huge, the fact that most of them managed to breakout to new highs did not come as a surprise to “some of us.”
But Before Popping any Corks….
Please also review the ugly details in this article which discusses the stock market performance only during:
August, September and October of Post-Election Years that also end in “7” (1917, 1937, 1957, 1977, and 1997)
The results are neatly summarized in Figures 2 and 3 below.
Figure 2 – August/September/October Dow Jones Industrials monthly price changes during Post-Election Years ending in “7”
Figure 3 – Growth of $1,000 invested in the Dow Jones Industrials Average ONLY during August, September and October of “Post-Election Years ending in “7”
(See also Four Things to Watch for Warning Signs)
Summary
So like I said, given the history of post-election years we should not be surprised that stocks followed through to new highs during July.
At the same time we should also not be too surprised if something “ugly” happens in the stock market in the months ahead.
Not a “prediction” per se, but more a reminder to “locate the exit nearest you.”
Jay Kaeppel
Disclaimer: The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources. While I believe the data to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information. The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute and should not be construed as investment advice, an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.
