It’s been a heck of a run. As you can see in Figure 1, if you were in the “right places at the right time” you did, um, pretty well for yourself.
Figure 1 – FAANG stocks “to the moon” (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)
The index in Figure 1 includes the following 9 tickers: AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOG, MSFT, NFLX, NVDA, PCLN and TSLA
(See also The Post-Election/Year ‘7’ Bermuda Triangle)
As you can see in Figure 2, this particular grouping hit a bit of an air pocket in the last week.
Figure 2 – “Trouble in Paradise?” (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)
So is that the top? As I am not good at predicting things, I will defer to my standard answer of “It beats me.” But the real point can be summed up as follows:
*These stocks have driven the overall stock market higher in recent years.
*It can be argued that these stocks have “gone parabolic” (which is fun while it lasts but….)
*When these stocks finally start to break, history suggests that this will not be a positive development for the overall stock market.
In Figure 1, I have drawn a 30-week moving average. There is nothing magic about 30-weeks and an eventual drop below the 30-week average does NOT definitively imply that a bear market is underway.
But I would keep an eye on these stocks anyway. Because if and when they do start to break in earnest, the overall stock market may be in a whole lot of trouble.
(See also One Good Reason NOT to Pick a Bottom in DIS)
Update on Warning Signs to Watch For
In this article I wrote about four tickers that might offer some “early warning” signs if trouble is coming in the stock market. In general, there really are no “warning signs” yet as most of these hit new highs recently as you can see in Figure 3.
Figure 3 – Four Tickers to Watch (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)
I wouldn’t stop watching them though. If these – and the FAANG stocks – falter, the time to turn defensive will be nigh.
Jay Kaeppel
Disclaimer: The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources. While I believe the data to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information. The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute and should not be construed as investment advice, an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.
