Well it’s raining like crazy here in the greater Chicagoland area (which reminds me, have we usurped the title of “Murder Capitol” from Detroit yet? I digress) and the stock market is – of all things – kind of going down of late. Who knew that that was still possible? Of course the truth is that we can probably use both – the rain and a “pullback” in the market, that is (the Murder Capitol thing, maybe not so much).
I have been on something of a hiatus. Have gotten some nice comments of late from people who used to read my stuff at Optionetics and just discovered my blog. I appreciate the kind words. It kind of makes me wish I could think of something useful and/or intelligent to say about the markets. Around late August I simply fell into the “stocks go up, bonds go up, gold goes down, period, end of discussion” zombie-like line of thinking, and couldn’t really find anything new to say regarding those particular trends. Sort of a “Lack of a need to do any analysis paralysis.”
September and After
The most bullish portion of the Decade cycle – i.e., the Mid-Decade Rally – starts at the close of trading on September 30th. Rather than regurgitate all of the relevant numbers I will simply encourage you to review this article (September 30th – Mark Your Calendar!) to get an idea of how the stock market has tended to move during the 18 months smack dab in the middle of the decade (Hint: “Up”).
In the meantime, a pull back in the stock market during the month of September might be “healthy” in the long run. Of course, we can also file this idea under the category of “Be careful what you wish for.” On a certain level it sounds logical to say “hey if the stock market experiences a nice, neat 3-5% pullback during September it may very well set the stage for the net leg up.” Unfortunately I have on several occasions in the past seen this type of thinking turn into “hey don’t worry, this current pullback is just setting the stage for…………AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!
So like I said, probably best to take it as it comes for now….and be careful what we wish for. I promise to start posting a little more regularly soon.
Jay Kaeppel
