In Part 1, I pointed out that it’s been tougher to make money with Coca Cola stock in the past 17 years (down x%) than it was during the previous 17 years (+7,586%?) – EXCEPT between the 10th trading day of March and the 2nd trading day of June. This time out let’s look at another period that has been seasonally favorable for KO.
Bullish Trend #2: October Trading Day #12 through November Trading Day #19
This trend involves buying shares of KO at the close of the 12th trading day of October and selling at the close on the 19th trading day in November. Figure 1 displays the growth of $1,000 invested only during this time period starting in 1982 through 2014.
Figure 1 – Growth of $1,000 invested in KO only between October Trading Day #12 and November Trading Day #19; 1982-2014
For the record:
*This period showed a gain 23 times
*This period showed a loss 10 times
*This period showed a gain 18 of the past 21 years
*The average gain was +7.2%
*The average loss was (-2.4%)
For 2015 this period will extend from the close on 10/16 through the close on 11/27.
The Year-by-Year results appear in Figure 2
| Year | %+(-) |
| 1982 | (0.0) |
| 1983 | 0.9 |
| 1984 | (1.5) |
| 1985 | 18.2 |
| 1986 | (6.6) |
| 1987 | (5.5) |
| 1988 | (1.5) |
| 1989 | 16.1 |
| 1990 | 9.0 |
| 1991 | 11.1 |
| 1992 | (0.0) |
| 1993 | (3.1) |
| 1994 | 2.7 |
| 1995 | 6.3 |
| 1996 | 5.7 |
| 1997 | 6.0 |
| 1998 | 3.6 |
| 1999 | 30.5 |
| 2000 | 4.3 |
| 2001 | 5.0 |
| 2002 | (2.1) |
| 2003 | 3.3 |
| 2004 | 1.6 |
| 2005 | 2.4 |
| 2006 | 6.6 |
| 2007 | 9.1 |
| 2008 | 2.4 |
| 2009 | 4.0 |
| 2010 | 6.9 |
| 2011 | (2.4) |
| 2012 | (0.9) |
| 2013 | 5.8 |
| 2014 | 5.3 |
| 2015 | ?? |
Figure 2 – Year-by-Year KO performance October Trading Day #12 through November Trading Day #19
Summary
Will KO show a gain between 10/16 and 11/27? There is no way to know until after the fact. But if you had to choose…………
Jay Kaeppel
