Soybeans Begin Unfavorable Seasonal Period

  • SumoMe

As I wrote about here, soybeans have a tendency to display price weakness between July Trading Day #9 and August Trading Day #6.  This year’s period began at the close of trading on Tuesday, July 14 and extends through the close on August 10th.

See also An Update on Natural Gas Seasonally Unfavorable Period

As I wrote about in the linked article, beans have declined in price during this period in 30 of the past 37 years (81% of the time).  Does this mean that beans will decline this time around?  Absolutely not (in fact, on a purely anecdotal basis, my neighbor recently returned from Indiana and mentioned that he was surprised how little seemed to be growing in the fields along the expressway – typically driving through Illinois and parts of Indiana this time of year involves a mind-numbing and endless array of strongly growing crop fields – so, hey, you’ve been warned).

In the meantime, as you can see in Figure 1 – so far so good (bad? In this case bad being good) as November beans are down $0.14 (or $700 a contract) here on Day 1. 3Figure 1 – November Soybeans (down hard on Day 1 of seasonally unfavorable period) (Courtesy: www.BarCharts.com)

Time to take a profit?  You’ll have to decide that one on your own.

Jay Kaeppel

 

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