As I wrote about here, soybeans have a tendency to display price weakness between July Trading Day #9 and August Trading Day #6. This year’s period began at the close of trading on Tuesday, July 14 and extends through the close on August 10th.
As I wrote about in the linked article, beans have declined in price during this period in 30 of the past 37 years (81% of the time). Does this mean that beans will decline this time around? Absolutely not (in fact, on a purely anecdotal basis, my neighbor recently returned from Indiana and mentioned that he was surprised how little seemed to be growing in the fields along the expressway – typically driving through Illinois and parts of Indiana this time of year involves a mind-numbing and endless array of strongly growing crop fields – so, hey, you’ve been warned).
In the meantime, as you can see in Figure 1 – so far so good (bad? In this case bad being good) as November beans are down $0.14 (or $700 a contract) here on Day 1. Figure 1 – November Soybeans (down hard on Day 1 of seasonally unfavorable period) (Courtesy: www.BarCharts.com)
Time to take a profit? You’ll have to decide that one on your own.