Speculative Ideas from A to Z

  • SumoMe

OK, technically it is not A to Z but B to S, but I’ve learned that it’s never a good idea to pair “B” and “S” together in the title.  So allow me to be candid: If you think of yourself as a thoughtful, savvy longer-term investor then this article is probably not for you.  This article is more for the “speculator”, i.e., a person who is not averse to taking a reasonable risk in hopes of generating an above average return – with any luck, in a relatively short period of time.

(See also The ‘Range Bound Consolidation Pattern’)

Caveat

Two things to note:

*Nothing that follows should be considered a “recommendation”. I am simply attempting to present some potential opportunities that I see setting up in a variety of markets.

*All of the examples and charts come from the futures markets. Where applicable though, I also list the ticker symbol for the ETF that tracks the market in question. These ETFs allow a trader to buy or sell short a given commodity just as they would buy or sell short shares of any stock – without having to trade futures contracts.

British Pound

I wrote about this here, but as you can see in Figure 1, the Pound appears to be setting up for a move to the upside.  The stop-loss point would be below the lowest low drawn in Figure 1.1Figure 1 – June British Pound futures (Courtesy ProfitSource by HUBB)

The British Pound ETF is ticker FXB.

Euro

As you can see in Figure 2, the Elliott Wave count from ProfitSource by HUBB is projecting a move to lower levels for the Euro. The Euro is slightly overbought and there is an identifiable “Uncle” point at the black horizontal line.2Figure 2 – June Euro (Courtesy ProfitSource by HUBB)

The ticker for the Euro ETF is FXE.

Gold

Gold has been wildly unpredictable of late, so any position here – long or short – is definitely “speculative” in nature.  That being said, as you can see in Figures 3 and 4 the daily and weekly Elliott Wave counts for June Gold futures are both projecting higher. Does this mean that gold is sure to rise?  Not at all.  It does tell me to look to play the long side for now.  A reasonable stop-loss would be below the March low on the daily chart.

4Figure 3 – June Gold daily (Courtesy ProfitSource by HUBB)

5Figure 4 – June Gold weekly (Courtesy ProfitSource by HUBB)

The ticker for the gold ETF is GLD (or ticker IAU).

Soybeans

Soybeans DO NOT always rally in late winter to early spring.  But if beans are going to make a move higher, this is the time we should be looking for it.  A potential stop-loss level would be somewhere below the support area drawn in Figure 6.3Figure 5 – May Soybeans (Courtesy ProfitSource by HUBB)

The soybean ETF is ticker SOYB

Sugar

As I wrote about here, Sugar has a tendency to display weakness during the March/April period.  In Figure 6 we see that May Sugar may be breaking to the downside (although, if Sugar bounces back quickly above the black line in Figure 6 then all bets are off.

6Figure 6 – May Sugar (Courtesy ProfitSource by HUBB)

The Sugar ETF is ticker SGG

(See also Blood in the Energy Streets)

Summary

Are any of these good ideas that will actually pan out?  As always, only time will tell.  What they do represent though are “potential” opportunities.

Whether or not to act on any of  these “opportunities”, and how to  go about it (long or short futures contracts, long or short ETF shares, options on futures, options on ETFs, etc) are all decisions that each trader must make on their own.

Jay Kaeppel

Disclaimer:  The data presented herein were obtained from various third-party sources.  While I believe the data to be reliable, no representation is made as to, and no responsibility, warranty or liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of such information.  The information, opinions and ideas expressed herein are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute and should not be construed as investment advice, an advertisement or offering of investment advisory services, or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.

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