In this article dated 1/28/16 I wrote about a simple two-fund portfolio that had somehow managed to make money from the end of January to the end of April, 27 years in a row. OK, make that 28 years in a row.
(See also A ‘Simple Hedge’ as Market ‘Bumps it’s Head’)
The portfolio was 50% invested in retail stocks (via ticker FSRPX) and energy services stocks (via ticker FSESX). As you can see in Table 1 below, FSRPX underperformed most of the major averages but FSESX far outperformed. As a result, the 50/50 FSRPX/FSESX portfolio gained +12.8% from the end of January to the end of April.
Figure 1 – Jay’s 2-Fund Portfolio versus Major Market Indexes
Figure 2 – Tickers FSESX and FSRPX; end of January through April (Courtesy AIQ TradingExpert)
This year’s gain (+12.8%) exceeded the historical average (+10.3%) and historical median (+10.1%). So chalk one up for the good guys.
Moving on to May
In case you missed it, I also wrote recently about a “May portfolio” here. This portfolio is a bit more defensive in nature and consists of 25% in each of the four funds listed below:
FDFAX – Fidelity Select Consumer Staples
FSHCX – Fidelity Select Health Care Services
FSPHX – Fidelity Select Health Care
FGOVX – Fidelity Government Income Fund
This portfolio has showed a gain during the month of May in 22 of the past 27 years (or 81% of the time).
Jay Kaeppel
Although UUP has dropped in the line in the sand, it still has time value. Why exit when there is still more time in the Trade? Thanks in advance.
Simple, the only reason for considering this trade was the hope that the line would hold. Line failed, trade failed, small loss taken, moving on. Bada boom bada bing…..Hope that explains it. Jay