Is This the Greatest Buying Opportunity Ever in Crude Oil?

  • SumoMe

Please note the question mark at the end of the title.  I am legitimately just asking the question and not attempting to imply that it is true.  This question I based on what was written by Douglas Terry of Alhambra Partners in this article – which I suggest you read in its entirety.

(See also Jay’s Trading Maxim’s (Part 1) and Jay’s Trading Maxim’s (Part 2))

(See also One Way to Play Crude Oil Volatility)

The gist of what is contained in Terry article is captured in the chart below which is a screen shot from that article.  Figure 1 display the price of gold divided by the price of a barrel of West Texas intermediate Crude.  The implication is that relative to gold, crude oil hasn’t been this cheap at any time in the last 124 years.  This chart was originally generated by Deutsche Bank and goes back to 1865 (Man, would I love to get my hands on their database). 1Figure 1 – Barrels of WTIC that can be purchased with an ounce of gold (1865-present); Source: Deutsche Bank

As I wrote about here and here, one can argue that we are seeing a “blood in the streets” type of scenario playing out in the energy sector.  “So far, not so good” since those articles were written as the energy sector continued to fall very hard in early February.  Still, it seems like a good time to invoke:

Jay’s Trading Maxim #292: There is a difference between picking a bottom and recognizing a  potential opportunity.

Crude oil and the rest of the energy sector have been in a virtual free fall for some time now.  How long that fall will last and when it will end is unknowable.  But also remember:

Jay’s Trading Maxim #293: Most truly great buying opportunities do not look anything at all like truly great buying opportunities at the time they are truly great buying opportunities.  In fact, they typically look like just the opposite.

Bottom line: I have no idea when the energy sector will bottom out – and yes, it could be at significantly lower levels.  Still, I do think we may look back at this time period as a buying opportunity.  So pay close attention.

Jay Kaeppel

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