Looking for a Short-Term Buy Signal in eMini S&P

  • SumoMe

I’ll be honest – it always scares me a little to write headlines like this.  They create a lot of opportunity to look like an idiot.  Still, a “system/method” that I developed several years ago is poised to give a short-term buy signal or eMini futures (or SPY or DIA for ETF traders).

(See Jay Kaeppel Interview at BetterSystemTrader.com)

Two things to note:

*This article details this method in great detail so I’ll not be rehashing it here

*The most intriguing factor is that since 2004 this method has generated 44 winning trades and 0 losses.

*The 43rd and 44th winners are not included in the linked article.  The 43rd bought the March 2015 eMini S&P on 12/18/14 at 2011.5 and sold it at the close that day 2060.25.  The 44th bought the December 2015 eMini S&P at 2092.25 on 12/1/15 and sold it at the close that day at 2100.00.

*Despite the “undeafeted” record this should BY NO MEANS be considered a “low risk” trading method.  There is a very wide stop-loss built in and in essence each trade signaled amounts to a “fairly large risk for as little as a one-tick reward” trade.

In other words, examine the idea closely and understand the risks before even thinking about “jumping in.” Eventually – inevitably – this method will suffer a loss and it will hurt.

And I can’t tell you that it won’t be on the next trade.

Jay Kaeppel

4 thoughts on “Looking for a Short-Term Buy Signal in eMini S&P

  1. I have a question for you Jay. Do you know of any viable strategy for trading US Dollar index Long/Short? I am an end of day only trader, and have Rydex’s open-ended mutual funds RYSDX and RYWDX available as vehicles. There are many mean reversion or seasonality focused strategies, but most are focused on US equity market. Just wondering if you know of any strategy, or of another advisory, that focuses on US Dollar L/S. Thanks Jay.

    1. Jim, I have a few models that trade the dollar, however, in all candor the results are not so great that I have been compelled to write about them. I think the Dollar, currencies and FOREX offer alot of opportunities but have not spent alot of time in that area in recent years. Sorry I can’t offer something useful at the moment. Jay

    1. I see no reason why it would not work with SPY. However, I have not run the numbers so cannot comment as to % of winning trades, average $ gain, nor where a stop might be placed for each trade (i.e., how far away from the entry price). Definitely a viable alternative for non futures traders however. Jay

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