A Final Word on Natural Gas Unfavorable Seasonal Period

  • SumoMe

As I wrote about here and here natural gas has showed a historical tendency to decline in price between June Trading Day #11 and July Trading Day #14 (Yes, I concur that it sounds ridiculous on the face of it, but, hey, the numbers are what the numbers are).

For the record, between the close on 6/15/15 and 7/21/15:

*September natural gas futures declined from 2.942 to 2.894, or a gain of $480 per a 1-lot short position (see Figure 1).1Figure 1 – September Natural Gas (Courtesy: ProfitSource by HUBB)

*The ETF ticker UNG declined from $14.03 a share to $13.87, or -1.14% (See Figure 2)2Figure 2 – ETF ticker UNG (Courtesy: ProfitSource by HUBB)

Not exactly earth-shattering but a profit is a profit.  For the record, this is the 23rd time in the past 26 years that natural gas has showed a loss during this period (88.5% of the time)

Also for the record in earlier articles I highlighted an example of an option trade to take advantage of this trend and also highlighted a profit-taking example.

See also Jay Kaeppel Named Portfolio Manager for New Investment Program 

Jay Kaeppel

 

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